The Get Home Denver Team

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The next 45 days will tell us a lot about the state of the State.  Or, more precisely the state of the Denver area in terms of the real estate market.

A quick historical overview.

• The Denver Real Estate market started to flatten out in 2001.  15% annual appreciation slowed to less than 6%.
• The Denver Real Estate market had very little appreciation from 2003-2005
• From 2005-2007 the Denver market dropped at a fairly steady pace.  Prices corrected over this time by over 15%
• From March 2008 to September 2008 the Denver Real Estate market appreciated, or stayed even, each month.

Analysis of 2008

I’ve been saying since January of 2008 that the Denver Real Estate market was on the mend.  We had hit bottom, and were ready for the eventual upswing.

In February 2008, we were finding many GREAT values for investor clients to purchase.  Values of homes that were 20%-30% below that of 2005.  Today, these deals are few and far between!  There are still some great deals to be had, but the weeding out process is much more difficult, and the competition stiff.

The recovery process has been slower than I anticipated, but the numbers are bearing out this prediction.  The Denver Real Estate market has been bouncing off the bottom for 7 months, and the upswing is near.  Or, is it?

The past 2-3 weeks have seen a dramatic DECREASE in activity. Historically the Real Estate Market takes a breath before an Election, and the gravity of this Election, along with the National Economy and the woes of Wall Street, have inflated the problem.  There is a definitely a “Wait and See” attitude in the buyer population right now.

So, in my opinion, the next 45 days will tell us everything about this market that we will need to know. The election will be behind us, and the country, along with consumer confidence, will no longer need to worry about the leader of the free world for the next four years.  Americans can get back to work, and back to living.  And, we can all move on from the uncertainty, fearmongering, and mudslinging that comes standard with Presidential Elections.

I think we will see the months of November, December and January be some of the best months for home sales in many years (compared to the same months in years past.)

The reason for this is there is HUGE pent-up demand from home buyers. There are 1000’s of first time home buyers in the market with month to month leases, looking for the right opportunity to jump into the market.  There are 1000’s of people, who have a home to sell, that would love to buy up, or buy down, and take advantage of the depressed pricing.  This group has been sidelined because they have been unable to sell their current property for what they believe it is worth.  These people are looking to VOLUNTARILY move, and as such, have decided to “wait it out” rather than take the necessary beating to sell over the past year.

If I’m wrong, and the next 45 days don’t show any improvement, it’s my fear that we will be looking at late spring, early summer to see the rebound begin in earnest.

So let’s get this Election over with already!

What do you think?  Do you believe the Denver market is ready to rise?  How about Nationally?

photo credit: Ricardo Carreon